A new report from Clean Air Task Force (CATF) finds that Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are closer than ever to large-scale commercialization after more than five decades of development. Drawing on a database of 103 historical and current EGS projects, the report documents steady improvement alongside recent step-change innovations that could enable EGS to scale rapidly and at lower cost if supported by sustained policy action, investment, and research.
“Fifty years of global Enhanced Geothermal Systems development have brought us to a turning point,” said Terra Rogers, Program Director for Superhot Rock Geothermal. “The progress documented in this report shows EGS advancing beyond the research phase toward becoming a commercially viable, scalable source of clean, reliable power and laying the groundwork for even higher-output superhot rock geothermal.”
“The data make the opportunity clear. With the right policy support, sustained investment, and continued research, EGS can deliver around-the-clock low-carbon energy in more places than ever before while opening new revenue streams from direct heat for industry and buildings, valuable minerals like lithium, and other co-production opportunities,” said Angela Seligman, Senior Geoscientist for Superhot Rock Geothermal at CATF.
Powering the Future: What 50 Years of Enhanced Geothermal Teaches Us Today compiles over 60 technical, operational, and financial characteristics from projects in 23 countries, the most extensive public record of EGS progress to date. The findings show that continued advancements in drilling performance, reservoir productivity, and cost reduction are positioning EGS to compete in more markets and geographies, though further development and demonstration will be needed to prove long-term performance at scale.
Key takeaways include:
- Increasing production temperatures: Over time, projects are getting hotter, averaging approximately 10°C increases per decade.
- Dramatic improvements in drilling performance: Recent projects have achieved drilling costs less than 20% of historical averages, with record-breaking penetration rates in commercial and research wells.
- Higher production output: Flow rates in some projects exceed the widely cited commercial benchmark of 80 liters per second, alongside higher average production temperatures.
- Scale and market confidence: EGS power purchase agreements signed since 2022 total more than ten times the combined capacity of all previous projects, suggesting increased confidence from offtakers in the technology’s near-term potential.
- Diverse revenue streams: Many projects are incorporating direct heat, lithium extraction, and other co-production opportunities, which could strengthen commercial viability.
The report also examines the potential of emerging superhot rock EGS systems, which would access supercritical reservoirs above 375°C to deliver exponentially greater energy output per well. Earlier analysis by CATF and the University of Twente found that just 1% of global superhot rock resources could generate 63 terawatts of clean, firm power — more than eight times today’s total electricity generation. Realizing this potential will require targeted research, development, and demonstration to close key technological gaps, which CATF has previously detailed.
Rogers continued:
“The steady rise in EGS production temperatures shows encouraging progress, but at the current pace we risk leaving opportunities like superhot rock on the table. Faster innovation and investment to lower costs will be essential to bringing next-generation geothermal online in time to meet growing demand from data infrastructure, electrification, and energy access in the Global South.”
With continued technical progress, supportive policies, and greater market engagement, EGS could become a major source of affordable firm, low-carbon power, complementing wind, solar, and other clean energy resources to strengthen grid reliability worldwide.
Read the report here for a comprehensive overview of 50 years of EGS development, the technology’s current trajectory, and the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead for scaling this source of clean, reliable energy.